AI Will Replace Software Engineering Jobs?

I’m taking everyone who says AI is replacing software engineering jobs seriously. Which means that every interaction I have, every task I accomplish, I take a step back and think through what would have to be in place in order for AI to do this?

Side note: I use AI every time I’m doing this type of analysis. It’s an amazing thinking tool.

A vendor released an API breaking change last week that broke our sales data pipeline.

What would need to be true for AI to take over this job?

AI would need:

• Full lineage tracking and intent-aware logs (INTENT AWARE LOGS 😱!!!)
• Knowledge of domain-specific rules like accounting and compliance (Retrieval Augmented Generation - RAG - isn’t good enough for this, would require training models)
• Schema change detection with real impact analysis (that’s Contract tests. Do you even know what a contract test is?)
• Coordination between systems and people (come on! People complain about email and meetings already)
• The judgment to ask for help (this is hard even for humans to do)

But we don’t design systems that way (yet).

We rely on duct tape, domain experts, and late-night Slack threads.

Bottom line:

AI can’t yet cover for bad design. It can help you make good design better. But we’ve got a long way to go, tons of money to invest before AI is replacing jobs. Not that it won’t, just that it’s going to take a lot.

Until then?

I get to continue having fun programming, collaborating with people about how systems work and how they need to change to accomplish big things for the business. And yes, sometimes having to stay up 'till midnight and work on Saturday :(

Am I the future COBOL programmer of today?